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What implications the Obama Campaign has for India is a very critical point for our country. What are the points at which Obama's policies will diverge from that of the Bush administration and how are they significant for India? The Democratic presidential candidate's recent remark on outsourcing has made the IT industry prick its ears. Obama's views on terrorism and the nuclear deal will also have repercussions on India. In the light of this situation how will Obama address India?
On August 28th in his acceptance speech the Democratic presidential candidate pledged to halt tax sops to companies that ship jobs outside the US. If Obama goes through with this promise it means bleak days ahead for India's IT industry as India's software and services exports stood at about $ 40 billion during the financial year 2008, a growth of 29%, with US as its largest market. But industry leaders reacted with caution and some chose to downplay the remark as "election rhetoric". The Indian IT industry believes that globalization of services is "irreversible" and outsourcing enables the US to remain competitive. Industry leaders do not believe that drastic changes will take place.
The nuclear deal is dangerously hanging on a tether where US is concerned. Experts fear that Obama will want India to adhere to the non-proliferation agenda. Former National Security Council Senior Director for Near East and South Asian Affairs, Bruce Riedel, who is among Obama's advisers said "The Democrats are much more likely to want to revisit the nuclear proliferation implications [of the nuclear deal]. That would complicate the relationship with New Delhi." At the same time Obama and the Democratic Party strongly support a stringent climate regime to succeed the Kyoto Protocol. Since civilian nuclear energy is largely seen as a clean alternative to fossil fuels, the stress on the Kyoto Protocol may be contradictory to the non-proliferation agenda. The final implications are contingent to the president's priorities.
Obama's policies on terrorism are of course stringently condemnatory. In fact according to Riedel "Obama is determined to put a lot more resources into the war in Afghanistan - and it's overlapped into Pakistan - than either a McCain presidency would or the Bush administration did." On one hand this spells good news for India as it brings Pakistan and Afghanistan under closer scrutiny than has been the case till now. But at the same time it could also lead to greater infiltration and turbulence on the border and especially in J&K as terrorist camps flee or relocate from Pakistan.
The overall Indo-US relationship is likely to be on good terms as US recognizes India's growing importance. As president he is likely to focus as much on India as Bush did or Clinton did before him. On the 62nd Independence Day of India Obama congratulated India, emphasizing that the two countries should enjoy "strong relations" to protect their people from 21st century threats. Thus the terms on which Obama will address India are likely to remain friendly and approachable.
